Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 from the ratio of sunspot number to sunspot-group area, low latitude activity, and 130-year solar cycle

Abstract

Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle is important for understanding the mechanism of solar cycle and solar activity influence on space-weather. We analysed the combined data of sunspot groups from Greenwich Photoheliographic Results (GPR) during the period 1874–1976 and Debrecen Photoheliographic Data (DPD) during 1977–2017 and determined the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean whole sphere sunspot-group area (WSGA). We also analysed the monthly mean, annual mean, and 13-month smoothed monthly mean version 2 of international sunspot number (SNT) during the period 1874–2017. We fitted the annual mean WSGA and SNT data during each of Solar Cycles 12–24 separately to the linear and nonlinear (parabola) forms. In the cases of Solar Cycles 14, 17, and 24 the nonlinear fits are found better than the linear fits. We find that there exists a secular decreasing trend in the slope of the WSGA–SNT linear relation during Solar Cycles 12–24. A secular decreasing trend is also seen in the coefficient of the first order term of the nonlinear relation. The existence of ≈77-year variation is clearly seen in the ratio of the amplitude to WSGA at the maximum epoch of solar cycle. From the pattern of this long-term variation of the ratio we inferred that Solar Cycle 25 will be larger than both Solar Cycles 24 and 26. Using an our earlier method (now slightly revised), i.e. using high correlations of the amplitude of a solar cycle with the sums of the areas of sunspot groups in 0–10° latitude intervals of the northern hemisphere during 3.75-year interval around the minimum–and the southern hemisphere during 0.4-year interval near the maximum–of the corresponding preceding solar cycle, we predicted 127±26 and 141±19 for the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25, respectively. Based on ≈130-year periodicity found in the cycle-to-cycle variation of the amplitudes of Solar Cycles 12–24 we find the shape of Solar Cycle 25 would be similar to that of Solar Cycle 13 and predicted for Solar Cycle 25 the amplitude 135±8, maximum epoch 2024.21 (March 2024)±6-month, and the following minimum epoch 2032.21 (March 2032)±6-month with SNT ≈4.