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Strong lens time delay challenge. II. results of TDC1

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dc.contributor.author Liao, K
dc.contributor.author Treu, T
dc.contributor.author Marshall, P
dc.contributor.author Fassnacht, C. D
dc.contributor.author Rumbaugh, N
dc.contributor.author Dobler, G
dc.contributor.author Aghamousa, A
dc.contributor.author Bonvin, V
dc.contributor.author Courbin, F
dc.contributor.author Hojjati, A
dc.contributor.author Jackson, N
dc.contributor.author Kashyap, V
dc.contributor.author Rathna Kumar, S
dc.contributor.author Linder, Eric
dc.contributor.author Mandel, Kaisey
dc.contributor.author Meng, Xiao-Li
dc.contributor.author Meylan, G
dc.contributor.author Moustakas, L. A
dc.contributor.author Prabhu, T. P
dc.contributor.author Romero-Wolf, A
dc.contributor.author Shafieloo, A
dc.contributor.author Siemiginowska, A
dc.contributor.author Stalin, C. S
dc.contributor.author Tak, H
dc.contributor.author Tewes, M
dc.contributor.author van Dyk, D
dc.date.accessioned 2020-11-10T02:31:00Z
dc.date.available 2020-11-10T02:31:00Z
dc.date.issued 2015-02-20
dc.identifier.citation The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 800, No. 1, 11 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 0004-637X
dc.identifier.uri http://prints.iiap.res.in/handle/2248/6733
dc.description Open Access © The American Astronomical Society http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0004-637X/800/1/11 en_US
dc.description.abstract We present the results of the first strong lens time delay challenge. The motivation, experimental design, and entry level challenge are described in a companion paper. This paper presents the main challenge, TDC1, which consisted of analyzing thousands of simulated light curves blindly. The observational properties of the light curves cover the range in quality obtained for current targeted efforts (e.g., COSMOGRAIL) and expected from future synoptic surveys (e.g., LSST), and include simulated systematic errors. Seven teams participated in TDC1, submitting results from 78 different method variants. After describing each method, we compute and analyze basic statistics measuring accuracy (or bias) A, goodness of fit χ2, precision P, and success rate f. For some methods we identify outliers as an important issue. Other methods show that outliers can be controlled via visual inspection or conservative quality control. Several methods are competitive, i.e., give |A| < 0.03, P < 0.03, and χ2 < 1.5, with some of the methods already reaching sub-percent accuracy. The fraction of light curves yielding a time delay measurement is typically in the range f = 20%-40%. It depends strongly on the quality of the data: COSMOGRAIL-quality cadence and light curve lengths yield significantly higher f than does sparser sampling. Taking the results of TDC1 at face value, we estimate that LSST should provide around 400 robust time-delay measurements, each with P < 0.03 and |A| < 0.01, comparable to current lens modeling uncertainties. In terms of observing strategies, we find that A and f depend mostly on season length, while P depends mostly on cadence and campaign duration. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher IOP Publishing en_US
dc.subject Gravitational lensing: strong en_US
dc.subject Methods: data analysis en_US
dc.title Strong lens time delay challenge. II. results of TDC1 en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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