Dependence of SSNM on SSNm - a Reconsideration for Predicting the Amplitude of a Sunspot Cycle

Abstract

An improved correlation between maximum sunspot number (SSNM) and the preceding minimum (SSNm) is reported when the monthly mean sunspot numbers are smoothed with a 13-month running window. This relation allows prediction of the amplitude of a sunspot cycle by making use of the sunspot data alone. The estimated smoothed maximum sunspot number (126+/-26) and time of maximum epoch (second half of 2000) of cycle 23 are in good agreement with the predictions made by some of the precursor methods.