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Title: | North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle |
Authors: | Javaraiah, J |
Keywords: | Sun: activity Sun: magnetic fields Sun: rotation Sun: sunspots |
Issue Date: | May-2007 |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Citation: | Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 377, No. 1, pp. L34-L38 |
Abstract: | Using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data obtained during the period 1874-2005, we find that the sums of the areas of the sunspot groups in the 0°-10° latitude-interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 yr to +2.15 yr from the time of the preceding minimum - and in the same latitude interval of the southern hemisphere but +1.0 yr to +1.75 yr from the time of the maximum - of a sunspot cycle correlate well with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of its immediate following cycle. Using this relationship it is possible to predict the amplitude of a sunspot cycle about 9-13 yr in advance. We predicted 74 +/- 10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Variations in solar meridional flows during solar cycles and 9-16 yr variations in solar equatorial rotations may be responsible for the aforementioned relationship, which seems to be related to the 22-yr solar magnetic cycle. |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2248/5708 |
Appears in Collections: | IIAP Publications |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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North-south asymmetry in solar activity.pdf | 137.77 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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