Do polar faculae on the sun predict a sunspot cycle?

Abstract

The paper reports the results of the analysis of the data on polar faculae for three solar cycles (1960–1986) at the Kislovodsk Station of the Pulkovo Observatory and on polar bright points in Ca ii K line for two solar cycles (1940–1957) at the Kodaikanal Station of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics. We have noticed that the monthly numbers of polar faculae and polar bright points in Ca ii K line and monthly sunspot areas in each hemisphere of the following solar cycle have a correlation with each other. A new cycle of polar faculae and polar bright points in the Ca ii K line begins after the polar magnetic field reversal. We find that the smaller the period between the ending of the polar field reversal and the beginning of a new sunspot cycle is, the more intense is the cycle itself. The intensity of the forthcoming solar cycle (cycle 22) and the periods of strong fluctuations in activity expected in this cycle are also discussed.